TY - JOUR
T1 - Preliminary Estimation of the Transmission Risk of Novel Coronavirus in Hubei Province
AU - Bi , Ping
AU - Huang , Jialiang
AU - Li , Fang
AU - Wu , Shujin
JO - Journal of Nonlinear Modeling and Analysis
VL - 3
SP - 987
EP - 996
PY - 2025
DA - 2025/05
SN - 7
DO - http://doi.org/10.12150/jnma.2025.987
UR - https://global-sci.org/intro/article_detail/jnma/24112.html
KW - COVID-19, the basic reproduction number, two-stage mathematical model.
AB - <p style="text-align: justify;">A novel coronavirus (COVID-19) causes an outbreak of viral pneumonia in Wuhan, Hubei province, China. In this paper, the deterministic
compartmental model is given based on the clinical progression of the disease
and the intervention measures implemented by the Chinese authorities. Simulations of the model are given to estimate the basic reproduction number
for COVID-19 based on the daily reported cases from China CDC. The basic reproduction number of the model is used to assess the transmissibility of
COVID-19. The results indicate that COVID-19 will be controlled at the end
of March if there are no imported infections people into China. Then the first-level public health emergency response can be adjusted to the second-level or
the higher-level response.</p>